UFC 118 Preview & Predictions: It's the James Toney show

By MIKE JOHNSTON

MAIN CARD

• Frankie Edgar vs. B.J. Penn (for lightweight title)

This rematch could very well go the way Machida-Shogun 2 went earlier this year. Penn lost a close, controversial unanimous decision to Frankie Edgar at UFC 112 and will look to show that it was a small chink in the legacy of the “Prodigy.” It has been well documented that Penn was injured and had been suffering from a sinus infection during the first fight and was not 100 per cent. Still, Edgar put forth an effective game plan and stifled Penn’s attack.

There is no way, whether standing or on the mat, Edgar will be able to finish Penn, but there are several different ways for B.J. to win this fight. The only fighters Edgar has finished in his 8-fight UFC career are Matt Veach and Ontario’s Mark Bocek, both great fighters, but nowhere near on Penn’s level. On the other hand, Penn has finished Matt Hughes, Takanori Gomi, Kenny Florian, Diego Sanchez, Sean Sherk, Joe Stevenson, Jens Pulver and Caol Uno, to name a few. Edgar will need to turn this into another kickboxing match and hope to outpoint the Hawaiian once again.

On the UFC 118 Conference Call, Penn sounded tranquil and mentally astute. You know that slow, eerie Hawaiian music B.J. enters the octagon too? Well, that music will be fitting for this bout. Look for B.J. to be his usual, dominant self. Penn will land the harder strikes during the exchanges and eventually gain top position. Follow that by a patented rear-naked choke for the win.

Penn by Submission.

• Randy Couture vs. James Toney

A message from James Toney: “Randy, if you step in my range, yer neck gettin’ twisted. Period.”

Lets be clear, this is not MMA vs. Boxing; this is James Toney vs. Randy Couture. It is a risky fight for Couture, who owns a gym in Toronto, Xtreme Couture Toronto. Sure, nearly all MMA fans will be backing Randy, but give Toney props, he played Joe Frazier in the movie Ali for goodness sakes! Some street cred is warranted.

Toney holds a professional boxing record of 72-6-3 including a knockout of Evander Holyfield and a TKO of Michael Nunn, and is clearly the best boxer to ever fight in the UFC. Considering the fact Couture has been rocked or dropped in his last four fights, he can’t afford to have Toney land any clean shots. This is strictly a case of Toney having a puncher’s chance, but little else. If Toney can land any clean shots before Couture takes the fight to the ground, he has a small chance of pulling off the upset.

Toney has an incredible lead left hook and counter right hand, and Toney also throws tremendous short punches, so even if Couture initiates a clinch, he is still in danger of getting clipped. Randy needs to get this fight to the ground, something he shouldn’t have a problem doing.

Ultimately, Toney’s footwork will be the key to how the fight unfolds. If he can maintain a certain distance, he might able to avoid the takedown long enough catch Couture. However, if Couture can secure a double leg, getting the fight to the ground, it should end in a similar fashion how Couture defeated Mark Coleman at UFC 109. It will be Couture’s choice whether he wants to finish the fight by TKO or submission. Smooth sailing for “The Natural.”

What should happen is Randy comes out, gauges the distance, waits for the opportune time to shoot, lands a double leg, quickly passes to side control then mount, and the ref will step in after a TKO or submission. But, in the unpredictable sport of MMA, fights don’t always turn out the way they should.

I’m lucky enough to have met and spoken with Randy at his gym in Toronto earlier this year, and he was as gracious as he is talented. So, If Randy does take Toney down at will and beat him up or submit him like he should, then I whole-heartedly, humbly apologize to the MMA community and Mr. Couture himself because…

Toney in one of the biggest upset KO’s in MMA history.

… just kidding. Look for Couture to eventually get Toney to the ground, beat him up for a bit, then sink in a choke or pummel him with punches until the ref steps in.

Couture by Submission.

• Kenny Florian vs. Gray Maynard

At the pre-fight press conference, Dana White announced that the winner of this fight is guaranteed a title shot. Although Maynard is technically undefeated in his professional career, he has lost before. People often forget, but Nate Diaz submitted Maynard on TUF 5, albeit in 2007. Ken-Flo, despite having a weak nickname, has a slick submission game that could spell trouble for “The Bully” even if he gains top position. Florian has been training with Georges St. Pierre and Firas Zahabi at the TriStar gym in Montreal, which has lead to him evolving his game and improving his wrestling tremendously.

>>Time out… I need a moment to name drop, bare with me. When I was out in Edmonton covering WEC 49, I met Kenny Florian and he couldn’t have been nicer. The day after the event I ran into him at the Edmonton airport and had some Tim Horntons with him and the WEC ring girl. He’s so friendly and down to earth, he could be Canadian for God’s sake. Fans north of the border should cheer for Kenny in all his fights. Anyways back to the breakdown<<

If Maynard decides to show off his always-improving boxing, it could backfire on him since Florian’s boxing and Mauy Thai are as crisp as ever. Maynard needs to get clean takedowns and control the majority of the fight. It may be ugly to watch, but it is the best way for Gray to secure his long-awaited title shot. His last six wins have all been by decision, including one over current champ Frankie Edgar. On the feet, Kenny should be able to outpoint Maynard, who is one of the best wrestlers in the sport. Maynard hits hard, but Florian’s chin has seen worse.

Florian by Split Decision.

• Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda

This bout replaces Nate Maquardt vs. Rousimar Palhares, but should still be worthy of its main card placement. Maia looks to rebound from his much talked about loss to Anderson Silva as he takes on the impressive Mario Miranda. In his last fight, Miranda beat up on Canadian David Loiseau and made him look old and foolish. Maia has been working diligently on his boxing, which should compliment his unparalleled ground game nicely. Miranda must be weary of being put on his back as Maia’s rear-naked choke and triangles are second to none; just watch his win over Chael Sonnen, or his impressive choke of Jason MacDonald. However, Miranda is chiseled and well rounded, and although many don’t know him, he is a threat at middleweight. He has decent enough jiu-jitsu to at least make Maia work for a submission, and he has better striking. Miranda may just shock the world.

Miranda by major upset.

• Marcus Davis vs. Nate Diaz

This scrap is the early candidate for “Fight of the Night” as both men always put on a show. Growing up the younger bother of Nick Diaz, Nate is one of the toughest guys in the sport. No matter where a fight goes, Nate never stops attacking. He takes on Boston’s own Marcus Davis who is coming off an impressive KO of Quebec’s Jonathan Goulet at UFC 113 in Montreal. The main battle within the battle will be Davis’ power vs. Diaz’s chin. Likely, whoever wins this battle will take the fight. Davis’ best chance at pleasing his hometown crowd is catching Nate and jumping all over him forcing a referee stoppage. Remember, Diaz was dropped by Melvin Guillard in their fight earlier this year and Davis hits harder than Guillard. Diaz will want this fight to get to the ground eventually so he can work his jiu-jitsu, especially if Davis finds a way to get inside his reach. This will be Diaz’s first real challenge at welterweight. If he can get past Davis, then he could be a contender at 170 very soon.

Diaz.

Who Canadian fans think will win:

Penn 80% – Edgar 20%

Couture 96% – Toney 4%

Florian 72% – Maynard 28%

Maia 80% – Miranda 20%

Diaz 64% – Davis 36%

**a group of 25 random Canadian MMA fans were polled on Facebook to see who they believe will win the four main card bouts. Only one fan even gave James Toney a chance**

PRELIMS LIVE ON SPIKE TV

• Gabe Ruediger vs. Joe Lauzon

Most UFC fans remember Gabe Ruediger as the fighter who couldn’t make weight, had an emotional breakdown, and was kicked off Season 5 of The Ultimate Fighter. Being known for that and that alone is unfair because Ruediger (17-5) is a former WEC lightweight champ and is riding a six-fight win streak. He possesses some dangerous submission skills and decent striking. He takes on fellow TUF 5 cast mate and Boston native, Joe Lauzon. Since fighting Ontario’s Sam Stout at UFC 108, Lauzon insists he has improved tremendously. His only two losses in the UFC have been to Stout and lightweight contender Kenny Florian, nothing to be ashamed of. This matchup, coupled with the support he is going to receive from the crowd, favours Lauzon. Still, it is never a good idea to come into a fight overconfident.

Lauzon.

• Nik Lentz vs. Andre Winner

This is your classic boxer vs. wrestler as Britain’s Andre Winner takes on the American Nick Lentz. At just 26, Lentz has an impressive record of 18-3-2 and uses his wrestling in all his fights. That will be his key to victory. Winner, on the other hand, sprawls and brawls to great affect. He is very quick, has great footwork and takedown defence. Being a member of Team Rough House and training with the likes of Dan Hardy, Paul Daley, Ross Pearson and Nick Osipczak has lead to his success and style. In a close bout, the winner is…

Winner.

PRELIMINARY CARD

• Nick Osipczak vs. Greg Soto

“Slick” Nick Osipczak is one of the top fighters coming out of the U.K. and is a strong prospect in the welterweight division. With his only professional loss being an exciting split decision to powerhouse Rick Story, ‘Slick Nick’ is someone to watch for. A lanky 6’2, Osipczak utilizes his reach with both punches and kicks, and has shown the ability to submit his opponents if he chooses. Greg Soto is trained by UFC lightweight Kurt Pellegrino and has a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Despite his credentials and solid record (7-1 with his only loss being a DQ), he might be in over his head. Osipczak should be able to use his reach and Muay Thai skills to handle Soto on the feet, and has the ability to gain the upper hand on the ground.

Osipczak.

• Dan Miller vs. John Salter

A loss for Dan Miller will spell the end of his UFC career as he has lost three decisions in a row to Chael Sonnen, Demian Maia and Michael Bisping, respectively; no slouches there though. He takes on Salter who is technically coming off his first UFC win, but he earned the win when Alberta’s Jason MacDonald suffered several fractures to his leg and ankle. Miller should outclass his opponent.

Miller.

• Amilcar Alves vs. Mike Pierce

Alves is your typical Brazilian newcomer, possesses strong jiu-jitsu and Muay Thai with a good record but hasn’t been in there with any notables. He takes on Mike Pierce, a very underrated welterweight. Alves is a question mark, but look for Pierce to use his wrestling and power to outmuscle Alves.

Pierce.