Friday, September 24, 2010

UFC 119 Fight predicitions and preview

This Saturday the UFC makes its debut in Indianapolis as Frank Mir and Mirko Cro Cop go to battle as the main event. The full fight card has several intriguing fights featuring battles which can surely have implications within their respected divisions. To get things started, let’s look at the main event of the evening.


Frank Mir vs. Mirko Cro Cop

The UFC heavyweight division may be the most stacked division in all of MMA, with numerous top fighters. Frank Mir is no stranger to being the UFC heavyweight champion. He held the honor until he was stripped of the belt in his second battle with reigning champ Brock Lesnar. This past March he stepped into the octagon for a shot at the Interim championship, but fell short as he hit a brick wall named Shane Carwin.

Although Cro Cop has never tasted the sweetness of being the heavyweight champ, he has won the Pride FC 2006 Openweight Grand Prix tournament. Even though he has come up short in title fights, he has achieved great success in the sport of MMA and has been highly regarded as one of the most dangerous head kickers in the sport. A versatile martial artist capable of winning by way of KO or submission, it seems Cro Cop has slowed down in recent years. He no longer has appeared to be the threat he was earlier in his career, which is why he hasn’t been able to mount a strong winning streak.

Both men are at a point in their MMA career in which if they lose they may be seeing their last potential title run slip away for good.

Frank Mir’s striking and conditioning has greatly improved as of recent, and he is always a beast on the ground. I see him dictating the pace of the fight and avoiding Cro Cop’s strikes, and eventually winning with the ground and pound.

Prediction— Frank Mir wins via TKO (referee stoppage due to strikes) in Round 2.


Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Ryan Bader

Since making his UFC debut at UFC 106, Little Nog has been turning heads. In his first fight within the octagon he earned the honor of KO of the night, and in his second appearance he won a tough decision and Fight of the Night. One thing he has demonstrated throughout his career is that when the bell rings, he is ready to fight and go to battle.

He has a full arsenal to throw at Bader—strong striking skills, ability to prevent takedown and engage submissions, and last the course of the fight due to conditioning.

Ryan Bader comes into this fight undefeated at 11-0 and coming off an impressive KO over Keith Jardine. He has proven himself through winning TUF 8, but he has a tough task ahead of him against Little Nog. Finishing 8 of his 11 opponents, he has demonstrated his versatility as a fighter, but his competition hasn’t been much to write home about. Sure, he knocked out Keith Jardine, but there’s a reason Jardine is no longer fighting in the UFC (5 straight losses and losing 7 of 11 last fights).

Bader has a promising future ahead of him in the UFC, but I don’t think it’s going to start against Little Nog Saturday night.

Prediction— Little Nog wins via unanimous decision.

Matt Serra vs. Chris Lytle

Anytime Matt Serra steps into the octagon fans are guaranteed an exciting show. Since defeating Lytle at TUF 4 finale in 2006, Serra had become the UFC welterweight champion and shocked the world when he defeated Georges St. Pierre.

Just over a year later St. Pierre came back and took his belt back, and since Serra has gone 1-1 in the octagon, fighting a war with Matt Hughes (loss by decision) and knocking out Frank Trigg.

Chris Lytle is a MMA veteran and hometown favorite Saturday night. Whereas Serra only has fought three times since meeting Lytle in the octagon, Lytle has fought eleven times. No matter how short notice or who his opponent is, Lytle will be ready to go. He’s a true warrior and has the heart of a lion, but when it comes to technique Serra has the advantage.

I don’t foresee this fight leading to an upcoming title shot, but it should be an action packed war between two of MMA’s exciting welterweights.

Prediction— Serra wins via unanimous decision.

Sean Sherk vs. Evan Dunham

I am going to go ahead and call this the “Fight of the Night” right now. Sean Sherk is one of the most entertaining fighters to watch. Although he is one-dimensional in what he brings to the octagon, he is effective. Over his pro career he has gone 33-4, with his four losses coming at the hands of Frankie Edgar, BJ Penn, Georges St. Pierre and Matt Hughes.

Evan Dunham is an undefeated rising prospect with strong submission skills. He has good hand speed, but his game plan should be more to dictate the pace of the fight with takedowns as opposed to throwing hands with Sherk in the center of the cage.

Dunham will win the fight if he is able to get in, strike and avoid Sherk’s counter. If he comes into the cage and is ready to go to war, he is walking into Sherk’s domain.

Prediction— Sherk wins via unanimous decision.

Melvin Guillard vs. Jeremy Stephens


This bout features two heavy hitters in the lightweight division who aren’t scared to throw their hands wild. Between the two warriors they have 27 KO’s on their resume, and I’d be shocked if another wasn’t added Saturday night.

Fans can expect a war when the bell rings of the first round until either one of the men is laid out on the canvas or the round ends. Win or lose, these fighters are going to put on a show. Although each man is known for his knockout power, each is capable of winning the fight by way of submission.

But come Saturday night, it will be a slug fest with the man with who brings more in the tank will be the victor. In a brawl like this, either man could get caught on the button and go down, so it’s a tough one to call.


Prediction—Melvin Guillard wins by TKO in Round 1.

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