By MIKE JOHNSTON- Nate Marquardt vs. Rousimar Palhares
Marquardt has been fighting the best in the world for years now, yet Palhares is perhaps the most dangerous opponent he has faced to date. Sure, Anderson Silva can knock you out and Chael Sonnen can ground-and-pound you all night long, but Palhares can end your career with one of his devastating leg locks, the best in MMA. Palhares needs to find one of Nate’s limbs in the first two rounds or runs the risk of gassing out. Since he is so muscular, at 5’8 185lbs, he tends to get tired the longer the fight goes. Still, his strength advantage could pay dividends in this fight. Marquardt, in the past, has shown a tendency to get taken down, such as he did repeatedly against Sonnen at UFC 109, and Thales Leites at UFC 85. If Palhares can control Nate on the ground, it could spell trouble for Georges St. Pierre’s friend and training partner. Marquardt will look to keep this fight standing and use his speedy footwork to move maneuver and keep a safe distance. He has proven striking skills and despite his solid ground game, the risk is too great for him to roll with Palhares. ‘Toquinho’ needs to get this fight to the ground even if it means repeatedly trying to pull guard, something that may get tiresome with impatient fans.
Palhares in an upset.
- Efrain Escudero vs. Charles Oliveira
Brazilian Charles Oliveira is one of the top lightweight prospects in MMA and takes a huge step up in competition as he fights TUF 8 winner Efrain Escudero. The advantage on the feet clearly favours the Mexican-American, but Oliveira’s ground game is something to marvel at. Oliveira is undefeated and Escudero’s only career loss was to unbeaten Evan Dunham, in a fight where he dropped Dunham in the first round. One thing is certain, if Oliveira can’t take a punch well, he won’t last long in this fight. Escudero fights with an aggression and drive to win by stoppage that not enough fighters possess. Still, the 20-year-old Oliveira has the technical skills to get this fight where he feels comfortable, on the ground in a dominant position. This fight will prove whether Oliveira is ready to fight top competition at this stage in his young, promising career.
Oliveira.
- Jim Miller vs. Gleison Tibau
Another quality lightweight matchup here as these two lefties look to take one step closer to title contention. Miller and Tibau are evenly matched with Miller having an advantage in standup, speed and cardio. The longer this fight goes, Miller will seem like the fresher fighter. And despite his much-improved striking, Tibau’s advantage is his grappling control and physical strength. Miller’s last win was a controversial decision over Ontario native Mark Bocek at UFC 111, where Miller showed that he can be controlled with superior jiu-jitsu, something Tibau possesses. This bout will in all likelihood be a 15-minute war with 29-28’s all across the board.
Tibau.
- Cole Miller vs. Ross Pearson
TUF 9 winner Ross Pearson looks to remain undefeated in the UFC as he takes on the always-game Cole Miller. Pearson is favoured and has momentum behind him, but runs the risk of getting caught by Cole’s long limbs if the fight goes to the ground. In saying that, Miller has had trouble in the past against shorter punchers like Jeremy Stephens and Efrain Escudero; Pearson fits into that ilk. To continue his win streak, Pearson needs to get inside on Miller’s reach, land his crisp combinations and implement some dirty boxing. Pearson will take a big step up the lightweight ladder with a convincing stoppage of ‘Magrinho.’
Pearson by TKO.
Who Canadian fans think will win:
Marquardt 60% – Palhares 40%
Escudero 45% – Oliveira 55%
Jim Miller 50% – Tibau 50%
Pearson 75% – Cole Miller 25%
**a group of 20 random Canadian MMA fans were polled on Facebook to see who they believe will win the four main card bouts.**
- Yves Edwards vs. John Gunderson
Gunderson is coming off a win over Canadian Mark Holst at the TUF 11 Finale and looks to make it two in a row with a win over savvy veteran Yves Edwards. Edwards returns to the UFC for the first time since mid-2006. With 55 career fights, Edwards has seen it all including wins over Hermes Franca and Josh Thomson, and losses to a who’s who of MMA stars including Ontario’s Mark Hominick, Gunderson is not yet a star but will look to add his name to that list. Edwards is quicker with more tools, but his best days are behind him. Gunderson, though, has been training with Canadian coaching genius Shawn Tompkins and is at the top of his game. Look for him to use his improved striking and his formidable grappling to hand Edwards his 17th career loss.
Gunderson.
- Jared Hamman vs. Kyle Kingsbury
It’s defensive end vs. defensive tackle as these are two former collegiate football players that have transitioned nicely to MMA. Hamman, the smaller of the two light heavyweights, always comes out striking aggressively, looking for a brawl. Training with Antony Hardonk and Vladimir Matyushenko has lead to an ever-improving Hamman, but he often fights recklessly with his head straight up and his hands too low. Kingsbury, who walks around at well over 230lbs, is very muscular, which lends itself well to power and explosiveness, but not cardio. Both like to stand and trade, so the fight will come down to who can take more punishment, or who can use their wrestling if they don’t like what they see on the feet. The longer the fight goes, Hamman’s superior cardio will be more apparent.
Kingsbury.
- Dave Branch vs. Tomasz Drwal
Dave Branch looked great against Gerald Harris at UFC 116 until he was turned into a Sportscentre highlight after being slammed unconscious Rampage-style. Still, Branch showed solid, if a bit stiff, standup, which, coupled with his Renzo Gracie black belt, makes him a threat. Tomasz Drwal is coming off a nasty heel hook loss to headliner Rousimar Palhares at UFC 111, but really who can blame him? ‘Toquinho’ is a mad man. Branch needs to get this fight to the ground and Drwal will try to test Brach’s chin. Drwal’s ground game is good enough to bide him enough time on the feet to land a fight-changing blow.
Drwal.
- Rich Attonito vs. Rafael Natal
Natal, who makes his UFC debut, is coming off a first round TKO over former middleweight contender Travis Lutter. The Brazilian is a jiu-jitsu practitioner, but can be dangerous everywhere. He fights TUF 11’s Rich Attonito, a tough, stocky middleweight with solid grappling, knockout power, and who fights with the tenacity of his training partners, Dan and Jim Miller. Natal is a lefty, but Attonito is accustomed to training with quality southpaws. Attonito’s aggression and power should overwhelm Natal.
Attonito.
- Anthony Waldburger vs. David Mitchell
These two UFC newcomers attempt to make a name for themselves in the stacked welterweight division. Waldburger is a quality grappler with wins over Pat Healy, Brian Foster and Pete Spratt. But, Mitchell is 11-0 and also finishes most of his fights with a submission. If he winds up on his back, he’ll work an active rubber guard to stifle Waldburger’s attack. Waldburger, 22, is from Texas and will be fighting in front of his family and friends, which could mean added motivation, but also added nerves.
Mitchell.
- Brian Foster vs. Forrest Petz
Foster looks to bounce back with a win after getting caught in a vicious kneebar courtesy of Chris Lytle at UFC 110. Foster loves to throw leather and use his strength to manhandle his opponents. Just look at what he did to Brock Larson at UFC 106. His opponent Forrest Petz likes to keep his fights standing to utilize his kickboxing. Petz is susceptible to submissions, like his arm-triangle loss to Nova Scotia’s T.J. Grant, however this should be a dogfight with plenty of punches thrown and landed. Foster can use his powerful wrestling and slams to gain the upper hand if he needs to.
Foster by (T)KO.
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