UFC 117 Preview & Predictions: stacked card will see if Sonnen will eat his words

By MIKE JOHNSTON

(Canadian MMA Examiner)

UFC 117: Silva vs. Sonnen could easily be called Brazil vs. USA. This card has the most star power since UFC 110. When the undercard features such names as Phil Davis, Dustin Hazelett, Rick Story, Stephan Struve, Ben Saunders and Johnny Hendricks, UFC 117 is sure to be one of the best cards of 2010. Here is a breakdown of the card, including a poll of who Canadian fans believe will win.

MAIN CARD

• Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen

The more MMA evolves it is becoming clearer that styles and matchups make fights. In the main event at UFC 117, middleweight champion Anderson Silva takes on the champion of trash talk, Chael Sonnen, in a fight that is a bad stylistic matchup for the Brazilian. Sonnen will attempt to use his advanced wrestling to put Silva on his back and punish him with punches and elbows. During the pre-fight hype for this championship bout, Sonnen has cemented himself as the best talker in the sport. The preamble to this fight has been plethora of insults and hyperbole from Sonnen’s end, and a lot of smiles and nods from Anderson Silva. It is shaping up to be a heated battle.

Since Silva fought Quebec’s Patrick Cote at UFC 90, his performances have been very inconsistent and somewhat baffling. The last time Silva won a lackluster decision over a Brazilian, he came back with a humiliating beating of Forrest Griffin. Well, expect history to repeat itself as Silva comes off his embarrassing mockery of Demian Maia at UFC 112. Sonnen is a great fighter and will make a good politician, but won’t be able to talk himself out of a loss here.

Silva by (T)KO.

• Thiago Alves vs. Jon Fitch

Dana White stated at the pre-fight press conference that the winner of Fitch/Alves 2 would earn another shot at the title, something both men want dearly. Alves and Fitch each have dropped a decision to champ Georges St. Pierre. If one were to judge this fight on how they did against St. Pierre, you’d have to give the slight edge to Alves based on how much damage Fitch endured; Fitch’s only loss in the past eight years was his five-round war with GSP.

One has to give Fitch credit for his grit, determination, resiliency and ability to grind out wins. In fact, Fitch’s last six fights have gone to decision. But, if Alves can shake off his ring rust early in the fight, it may go similarly to the Alves-Koscheck fight from UFC 90. When Alves fought Fitch’s teammate, Koscheck, who is regarded as a better wrestler than Fitch, Alves was able to shrug off all takedown attempts, remain standing, and implement his game plan.

When the two were scheduled to meet at UFC 107 and 111, I was confident that Alves would win, becoming the first person to KO Fitch since Wilson Gouveia did back in 2002. Now, though, with Alves’ extended layoff, plus Fitch picking up several wins in the meantime, I’m less confident Alves will be 100%. If you look at the recent history of fighters returning to action after long layoffs, the odds don’t favour Alves. Patrick Cote, Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson, Chuck Liddell, Todd Duffee, and Yoshihiro Akiyama all lost after extended layoffs. Brock Lesnar has been the only exception.

Fitch by Decision.

• Rafael dos Anjos vs. Clay Guida

After his impressive win over Terry Etim at UFC 112, it showed that Rafael dos Anjos is a lightweight to keep an eye on. With power in his hands and top-notch jiu-jitsu, he can end a fight anywhere. Guida has shown holes in his game before; his standup is rudimentary and he can be submitted. If he can gain top position, though, he can grind out a patented Guida victory and bust up dos Anjos pretty bad. Since dos Anjos likes throwing powerful leg kicks to open up his opponents, there is a good chance Guida can catch a leg at some point and put the Brazilian on his back. Guida has the best chance at winning a decision, but dos Anjos has more ways to finish the fight. If the same dos Anjos from UFC 112 shows up, Guida’s neck and limbs are in trouble.

dos Anjos by Submission.

• Ricardo Almeida vs. Matt Hughes

This fight will prove exactly what Matt Hughes has left in the tank. Fans have questioned Hughes since his second loss to GSP and Ricardo Almeida is a true test for the UFC Hall-of-Famer. Almeida will have the opportunity to avenge his longtime trainer Renzo Gracie’s loss to Hughes from UFC 112. While Hughes has only lost to GSP, Alves and BJ Penn in the last nine years, he isn’t the fighter he was a few years ago. And, his opponent has won 10 of 11 including wins over middleweights Nate Marquardt and Kendall Grove. People should remember, Almeida was just one fight away from gaining a middleweight title shot against Anderson Silva. Almeida lost to Canadian Patrick Cote by split decision at UFC 86, his lone loss in eight years. Hughes’ wrestling and Almeida’s grappling are both elite, so the fight might come down to who has better standup, or who is the first to gain dominant position. But more likely, the winner will be who controls the action. Expect much of this fight to take place in a clinch along the cage.

Almeida by Decision.

• Junior Dos Santos vs. Roy Nelson

Many believe Dos Santos has deserved a title shot for months. Now, if he wins at UFC 117, he is guaranteed one. But, if the rotund Nelson can pull off what many would consider a major upset, then ‘Big Country’ is the one deserving of a title shot. Despite both men being enormous human specimens, they are quick and light on their feet. Dos Santos has more power and better technical boxing, while Nelson has one of the best ground games in the heavyweight division. This fight may come down to who can take a better punch. This is no slight against Nelson’s skills, but Dos Santos seems too big and strong for the TUF 10 winner. Look for this fight to go similarly to Nelson’s fight with Andre Arlovski from 2008. The beginning of the end is when Dos Santos lands a nice left-right combination.

Dos Santos by (T)KO.

Who Canadian fans think will win:

Silva 65% – Sonnen 35%

Fitch 57% – Alves 43%

Guida 60% – dos Anjos 40%

Hughes 57% – Almeida 43%

Dos Santos 67% – Nelson 33%

**a group of over 30 random Canadian MMA fans were polled on Facebook to see who they believe will win the four main card bouts. Surprisingly more fans hope to see Chael Sonnen win, even though the majority believe Silva will be victorious**

PRELIMINARY CARD

• Dustin Hazelett vs. Rick Story

‘McLovin’ returns to the octagon for the first time since a devastating KO loss to Paul Daley at UFC 103 in January. He takes on Rick Story, who has won three in a row and nine of his last ten. Story is a stocky, powerful wrestler that has shown heart and durability in the UFC. Hazelett has outstanding submissions and accurate standup. Neither man would mind if this bout turns into a crowd-pleasing brawl, but that would favour Story. Hazelett is the more technical fighter and has the advantage on the ground. However, considering how long Hazelett has been on the shelf, and how tough Story is, Hazelett will need to lock in one of his patented submissions to stop Story’s onslaught. Story might just be strong enough to fend off a plethora of submission attempts for three rounds. He could also surprise some people with a TKO.

Story in an upset.

• Phil Davis vs. Rodney Wallace

Davis replaces the injured Stanislav Nedkov and takes this fight on just two weeks notice, but that shouldn’t matter all that much. Davis is one of the top light heavyweight prospects, some say the best besides Jon Jones. Wallace likes to slam his opponents and throw bombs, but Davis is an outstanding grappler and athlete. Once Davis gets the fight to the ground -and he will with relative ease- he will control Wallace until a submission reveals itself or he decides to use his fists.

Davis by Submission.

• Tim Boetsch vs. Todd Brown

Boetsch was scheduled to fight Thiago Silva, but the Brazilian is injured so the 38-year-old Brown makes his UFC debut instead. This is Boetsch’s second stint in the UFC and with strong wrestling and power, he is a dangerous light heavyweight. His only three career losses have been to UFC stars Matt Hamill, Jason Brilz and Vladimir Matyushenko. Brown will come out, brawl and show heart, but ultimately fall short.

Boetsch by (T)KO.

• Charlie Brenneman vs. Johny Hendricks

Johnny Hendricks admittedly was not himself in his last fight when he took on Nova Scotia’s T.J. Grant at UFC 115. In an exciting back-and-forth decision that many thought should have gone to Grant, Hendricks was able to convince two of three judges he did enough to win. Brenneman is a wrestler too, but not on the level of Hendircks. Look for Hendricks to continue his win streak.

Hendricks.

• Christian Morecraft vs. Stefan Struve

Christian Morecraft has a tall task, literally, in his UFC debut as he takes on 6’11 Stefan ‘Skyscraper’ Struve. Morecraft, listed at 6’8 260lbs, is the second tallest fighter on the UFC roster behind only Struve. Considering his only two UFC losses have been to contenders Roy Nelson and Junior dos Santos, and Morecraft (6-0) has yet to face a quality heavyweight, Struve (19-4) will have the upper hand. The step up in competition will prove too much for Morecraft.

Struve by Submission.

• Dennis Hallman vs. Ben Saunders

Saunders is coming off a decision loss to Jon Fitch and his opponent, Hallman, is coming off a last second KO loss to John Howard. Both men look to improve on their recent performances. Hallman, who has fought for the Canadian promotion MFC, is a submission specialist who is known for stopping Matt Hughes on two separate occasions. Saunders will look to keep the fight standing and land some devastating Muay Thai strikes. The younger Saunders also has decent ground skills, which should be enough to thwart Hallman’s attacks.

Saunders.