Friday, February 25, 2011

UFC 127 Preview & Predictions

By Mike Johnston
@MikeyJ_MMA
The UFC makes its second trip down under as the Australian crowd will be treated to 12 fights featuring a group of Australians, one former champion, and a Canadian making his UFC debut. Calgary’s Nick “The Promise” Ring is finally set to make his promotional debut following a stint on The Ultimate Fighter reality series and recovering from a serious knee injury. Ring will fight Japanese star Riki Fukuda in a preliminary bout that can be seen live in Canada on Rogers Sportsnet and Spike TV. The main card begins at 10 p.m. ET and is available to order on PPV.
For more UFC info and updates follow @MikeyJ_MMA on Twitter. Here is a full preview with predictions for UFC 127…
BJ Penn vs. Jon Fitch
The main event at UFC 127 will decide the number one contender at welterweight and it’s also the toughest fight to predict because Penn is a wildcard. If the aggressive, vicious BJ Penn that showed up at UFC 123 is present then Fitch may not know what he’s in for. It has been proven that strong wrestlers like Georges St. Pierre, Frankie Edgar, and now possibly Fitch, have the ability to control the Hawaiian. This is the conundrum and it’s what will dictate how this fight plays out: can Fitch takedown BJ and thwart his offense? If the answer’s yes, then Fitch will fight for the title again. Bringing in Matt Hughes certainly helped Penn in preparation, but Fitch has a wealth of top-level training partners such as Josh Koscheck, Phil Davis and Cain Velasquez. On the feet, advantage Penn; jiu-jitsu and wresting combined, advantage Fitch. The x-factor will be Penn’s tenacity versus Fitch’s durability and persistence. After a lot of wavering, I’m going with the slight upset.
Penn.

Jorge Rivera vs. Michael Bisping
This will be more an actual fight than it will an athletic endeavor. These two middleweights seem to dislike one another, have talked a lot, and now have to back it up. On paper Bisping has an advantage everywhere except knockout power. However, Rivera does not respect Bisping’s skill set and will bring the fight to the Brit. If he catches Bisping off guard then the TUF 3 winner could be in trouble. Bisping should use his kicks to keep Rivera off balance. As Rivera comes forward, a nicely timed leg kick could throw him off enough for the Brit to take advantage. Bisping can also use his quick footwork to establish distance and pick Rivera apart like he has done in his fights with Dan Miller, Yoshihiro Akiyama and Chris Leben. But, instead of that, expect a more aggressive Bisping; he will undoubtedly want a finish. Never count out Rivera’s heart, durability and knockout power, but this is Bisping’s fight to lose.
Bisping.
George Sotiropoulos vs. Dennis Siver
Many people are writing off Siver and saying he doesn’t deserve to be in there with Sotiropoulos. This is a fallacy as Siver is one of the most underrated lightweights and a real threat to the Australian. He has some of the best striking in the division and an underrated ground game to boot. That being said, Sotiropoulos might have the best jiu-jitsu at lightweight and is an underrated striker. Sotiropoulos is clinical with his technique wherever the fight is, whereas Siver sometimes leaves himself open as he goes for a knockout strike. If and when Sotiropoulos gets the fight to the ground his top control is unparalleled.
Sotiropoulos.
Kyle Noke vs. Chris Camozzi
The Aussie, Noke, looks for a win on home soil, as these two TUF 11 vets with well-rounded skills face off. Camozzi has an excellent chin and Noke will test it. This fight could go everywhere with Noke having a slight edge in technique and Camozzi possessing the guts and grit to grind out a win. Noke should be motivated by the crowd and by training at Greg Jackson’s he is used to competing against better fighters than Camozzi. In what could be a dogfight…
Noke.
Chris Lytle vs. Brian Ebersole
Lytle has been the forgotten man at welterweight for years, but is without question one of the best. He was scheduled to fight Carlos Condit, but the former WEC champ injured his knee and had to pull out. Instead he faces MMA veteran Brian Ebersole. Lytle’s main concern in this bout should be motivation. He has not much to win and everything to lose. That being said, Lytle always goes for the finish and puts on exciting fights. Ebersole has won 11 of his last 12 fights (46-14-1-1 overall) and has competed against notables Hector Lombard, Kyle Noke and Ed Herman with wins over Canadian Carlos Newton, Matt Horwich, and Nick Thompson. Still, making your UFC debut on short notice against a guy like Lytle is the opposite of a recipe for success. To use a hockey metaphor, this fight will be like a great AHL team going up against one of the best NHL teams. Lytle should simply outclass his opponent.
Lytle.
  • PRELIMS LIVE ON SPIKE TV & ROGERS SPORTSNET at 9 p.m. ET
Spencer Fisher vs. Ross Pearson
The game plan for these two lightweights is no secret. Both men will stand and trade until someone goes down or the final horn sounds. Pearson likely learned a lot from his first UFC loss and Ontario’s Jeff Joslin has assisted Fisher of late, which proved to be a good move in his last outing. This should be a tightly contested, technical matchup reminiscent of Fisher’s wars with Sam Stout. Pearson is younger and steadily improving. Look for this to go similarly to when Fisher lost a decision to Dennis Siver this past summer, with Pearson scoring more points overall en route to an entertaining decision.
Pearson.
James Te-Huna vs. Alexander Gustafsson
Te-Huna is an Australian slugger that looks to put on a show for the home crowd like he did at UFC 110. Gustafsson is one of the best prospects in the light heavyweight division. The Swede’s dismantling of Muay Thai ace Cyrille Diabate was impressive to say the least. With strong wrestling, fight-ending power and a long frame, Gustafsson is a handful for anyone at 205lbs. Te-Huna puts on exciting fights and will need to catch Gustafsson early if he stands a chance at upsetting the young Swede. Look for Gustafsson’s reach and speed to be a major difference. Both guys will go for it.
Gustafsson.
Riki Fukuda vs. NICK RING
Canadian Nick Ring makes his UFC debut against fellow newcomer Riki Fukuda. This should be an entertaining scrap between two well-rounded middleweights that like to slug. Ring has proven Muay Thai skills, brutal knees and powerful left kicks. His fundamental boxing is the weakest part of his standup and that’s where Fukuda could take advantage. Look for the Japanese star to dirty box and turn the fight into a brawl. On the ground, Ring should be more than capable of taking control, that is, if the fight goes to the mat at all. This should be a great way for the Prelims Live broadcast to get underway. In part due to Fukuda’s toughness, look for Ring to earn a late stoppage or decision win. Ring is one of the best prospects in Canadian MMA today.
Ring.
  • PRELIMS LIVE ON FACEBOOK at 8 p.m. ET
Tiequan Zhang vs. Jason Reinhardt
Although Reinhardt has a 20-1 record, he has not competed in MMA in over three years. Meanwhile, Zhang (12-1) is coming off his first career loss and should be highly motivated. Both men have dangerous submissions and Zhang has been improving his standup lately. The Mongolian will be making his featherweight debut so it will be interesting to see how the weight cut affects him.
Zhang.
Tom Blackledge vs. Anthony Perosh
Neither man has been active in MMA of late and both have 10-6 records with 19 submission or (T)KO wins between them. Blackledge is another Wolfslair member fighting on the card and he possesses serious knockout power, especially with his kicks. Perosh on the other hand is more well-rounded and dangerous on the ground. Perosh hasn’t fought since he stepped in on short notice and was battered by Mirko ‘Cro Cop’ Filipovic at heavyweight at UFC 110 and Blackledge hasn’t fought since August 2009. Blackledge will want this fight on the feet and Perosh will be more comfortable on the ground. Although Blackledge is the favourite, based on recent activity and overall quality of opponents give a slight advantage to the Australian, Perosh.
Perosh.
  • PRELIMINARY CARD
Maciej Jewtuszko vs. Curt Warburton
After his stunning knockout of Anthony Njokuani at WEC 50, Jewtuszko is one of my fighters to look out for in 2011. He is a national Muay Thai champion in his native Poland and possesses an active submission game. At 7-0 with seven finishes Jewtuszko can take a lot of punishment and is dangerous wherever the fight goes. Warburton is a strong British grappler who trains at the Wolfsliar academy, so he’s not averse to trading with his opponents. He is looking to bounce back from a loss in his UFC debut to Spencer Fisher at UFC 120 and is best known for his trilogy with TUF 9 winner Ross Pearson. As per his strategy of late, Warburton will likely look to push Jewtuszko against the cage, take him down and smother him. If he can do that he could be successful. Otherwise, Jewtuszko has shown he can finish fights from many different positions.
Jewtuszko.
Mark Hunt vs. Chris Tuchscherer
This fight should easily be one of the best fights of 2011. And that first sentence is certainly one of the most sarcastic of the year so far. This fight will go one of two ways. Either Mark Hunt can stave of Chris Tuchscherer’s takedowns and eventually land a knockout punch. Or, Tuchscherer will use his wrestling and succeed with lay-and-pray tactics the latter is more likely. Tuchscherer is not exciting and Hunt hasn’t proven to be a well-rounded mixed martial artist. If Tuchscherer can avoid getting knocked out at the beginning of each round, he will use his size and wrestling to dominate Hunt, who has lost six fights in a row dating back to 2006. In fact (no offense to Hunt), if Tuchscherer doesn’t win easily and impressively he does not belong in the UFC. Many fans were surprised when the UFC announced this fight; the loser will most definitely be handed their walking papers.
Tuchscherer.

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