Before Brock Lesnar and Cain Velasquez duke it out for the UFC Heavyweight Championship, and before Jake Shields makes his promotional debut, two exciting Canadians will be in action. London, Ontario native Sam Stout takes on British striker Paul Taylor in a preliminary bout, and Quebec’s Patrick Cote is featured on Spike TV’s Prelims Live broadcast as he takes on Tom Lawlor.
Here is a complete breakdown of UFC 121:
MAIN CARD- Brock Lesnar vs Cain Velasquez
Clearly, the most important question heading into arguably the biggest heavyweight fight in MMA history is… will Brock Lesnar be fighting with that crazy Viking beard he’s got going on? It’s rather obvious that the result of this fight depends heavily on whether he decides to shave or go shaggy. Ok, maybe not, but seriously, how cool is that beard?
The real question in this bout is whether or not Lesnar will be able to get on top of Velasquez and control him. There is no question that Velasquez is the better mixed martial artist. More skilled, more fluid, more experienced and well-rounded. But it’s Lesnar’s size, strength, power and wrestling that most can’t handle.
It was clear in the Shane Carwin fight that Brock Lesnar does not like to get hit. Cain Velasquez took note of that at UFC 116 and will look to pepper Lesnar with his crisp combinations. Although Brock is the heavy favourite among fans and a favourite in the betting lines (-155 compared to Cain’s +150), many fighters believe Cain has a legitimate shot.
UFC fighter Aaron Simpson tells CanadianProFighter.com that he has been training at AKA lately and sees Cain doing well in this fight. “I'm really impressed with Cain's focus,” said Simpson. “He's in that zone right now. Gonna be fun watching him win.”
And, if Cain can stay off his back, he will win. And, even if he is taken down, he has the skills to sweep Lesnar, scramble back to his feet, or possibly pull off a submission. Also, don’t be surprised if Cain is able to take Brock down. Sure, he has a size and strength disadvantage, but he is also a tremendous wrestler used to facing large opponents.
Velasquez.
- Martin Kampmann vs. Jake Shields
Although he is a heavy favourite and there is plenty of hype surrounding his UFC debut, this is a stylistic matchup that doesn’t favour Jake Shields. Kampmann has a solid ground game and a clear advantage in striking. His Dutch kickboxing is some of the best in the welterweight division, crisp, accurate and fluid. However, simply based on his recent accomplishments against bigger, stronger fighters, Shields should be able to overpower Kampmann on the ground and pick up the win, his 15th consecutive victory.
Shields.
- Tito Ortiz vs. Matt Hamill
Teacher meets student as TUF Season 3 coach Tito Ortiz takes on his prized pupil, Matt “The Hammer” Hamill. Even though Ortiz has been in the sport much longer, Hamill has evolved his standup to a point where he will have the clear advantage on the feet. And, when it comes to wresting, Hamill has the edge there as well. Ortiz says he is 100% healthy for the first time in years, so it will be interesting to see how he performs. Don’t be surprised if Hamill decides to impose his will on the feet. And, keep an eye out for the powerful kicks of “The Hammer.” The last time Hamill fought a ground-and-pound specialist, he won by devastating head kick KO.
Hamill.
- Brendan Schaub vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
This is a huge challenge for the up-and-comer Schaub, who has kept gaining momentum after his loss to Roy Nelson in the TUF 10 Finale. He takes on the perennial contender Gabriel Gonzaga in the biggest test of his MMA career. Schaub is an aggressive but smart fighter who considers himself a knockout artist. However, Schaub tends to open up a bit too much and put himself in danger during exchanges, and against an opponent like Gonzaga, that could spell disaster. Gonzaga has heavy, underrated kicks and he should utilize them in order to take the pep and power from Schaub’s punches. Schaub has never been out of the first round and Gonzaga has never been to decision in his seven-year career. This is an interesting matchup that will tell us whether or not Schaub is ready for top competition in the UFC, and whether or not Gonzaga is still an elite heavyweight.
Gonzaga.
- Diego Sanchez vs. Paulo Thiago
If Sanchez can’t get by Thiago, he should seriously consider changing his diet and dropping to lightweight permanently. Actually, win or lose, he should go back to 155. For now, Sanchez is back with Greg Jackson’s camp after years apart and that should be beneficial for the first ever
Ultimate Fighter winner. Thiago said that he prefers to fight southpaws, so that may pay dividends for him. In addition to fighting, the Brazilian still works as a Special Forces officer in his home country. These days, a fighter can’t live up to his full potential in the UFC when not training full-time. And, against a hungry opponent like Sanchez, the lack of time in the gym may be the difference. Neither fighter has overly impressive standup, but both are dangerous on the ground. This is an evenly matched fight where wrestling, and dominant positions could be the difference. It should be a close exciting scrap.
Sanchez.
Who Canadian fans think will win:
Lesnar 100% – Velasquez 0%
Shields 7% – Kampmann 23%
Ortiz 58% – Hamill 42%
Schaub 39% – Gonzaga 61%
Sanchez 58% – Thiago 42%
COTE 85% – Lawlor 15%
STOUT 57% – Taylor 43%
**a group of random Canadian MMA fans were polled on Facebook to see who they believe will win the five main card bouts, as well as the two fights featuring Canadians. Astonishingly, every fan polled believes Lesnar will retain his title, and just over half picked Stout.**
PRELIMS LIVE ON SPIKE TV- Court McGee vs. Ryan Jensen
The most recent TUF champ, McGee, makes his true UFC debut against Ryan Jensen, a quality opponent that uses a varied attack to stymie his opponents. McGee’ has adequate standup with good wrestling and powerful submissions. McGee possesses surprising upper body strength and this leads well to crushing chokes and control.
McGee. - Patrick Cote vs. Tom Lawlor
Both of these exciting middleweights look to rebound from submission losses at UFC 113 in Montreal earlier this year. Lawlor has looked great since dropping to middleweight and Cote is one of the most dangerous punchers at 185lbs. If championships were decided based on a fighter’s personality and charisma, then Lawlor would be atop the division. But that’s not the case, although he has skills to back up his amusing actions. Both men push the pace with aggressive striking and Lawlor will likely look to clinch. Cote just needs an excuse to let his hands go. If he can find his range, he should be able to land clean and change the momentum of the fight.
Cote.
PRELIMINARY CARD- Sam Stout vs. Paul Taylor
In the most exciting matchup on the preliminary card, Ontario’s Sam Stout takes on fellow kickboxer, England’s Paul Taylor. This one has “Fight of the Night” written all over it, but that comes as no surprise whenever Stout’s involved. Taylor is a brawler and this plays right into the hands of “Hands of Stone.” Stout’s precision Dutch-style Muay Thai should lead him to victory. Stout is 4-5 in the UFC but has yet to finish an opponent at the highest level. Look for that to change.
Stout.
- Daniel Roberts vs. Mike Guymon
Guyman has one of the more compelling stories in MMA, but he is in tough against one hell of a grappler. Daniel Roberts is a talented welterweight who is looking forward to showing off his improved skills. Guyman is game, but Roberts is in terrific condition and has been training with Jake Shields, the Diaz brothers and Gilbert Melendez in California. Enough said.
Roberts.
- Chris Camozzi vs. Dongi Yang
Yang is 9-0 with eight TKO wins, but has only fought once in the last two years. Combine that with the fact Camozzi has an excellent chin and the Korean may be in over his head. Yang has not faced top-level North American competition yet, so this should test his ability. In saying this, Camozzi is nowhere near a top middleweight at this stage of his career. This should be an exciting fight.
Camozzi.
- Jon Madsen vs. Gilbert Yvel
The once feared knockout artist Gilbert Yvel finds himself on the verge of being cut from the UFC following losses to Junior Dos Santos and Ben Rothwell. He takes on Brock Lesnar’s training partner Jon Madsen, who uses his wrestling credentials to drag his fights out and pick up victories; not exciting, but effective. The battle will be Madsen’s takedowns vs. Yvel’s striking and poor takedown defense. If the fight stays on the feet long enough, the Dutchman should win rather easily. Although he has stated he wants to start finishing fights, look for Madsen to revert to his wrestling roots.
Yvel by (T)KO.
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By MIKE JOHNSTON
Great picks,.
ReplyDeleteI think Lesnar. Takes it though...Viking beard FTW