By Mike JohnstonWhat better way to cure your New Year’s Eve hangover than with a terrific night of fights, including a lightweight title fight between champion Frankie Edgar and the only man to have defeated him, number one contender Gray Maynard. There are no Canadians on the card, but Antonio McKee, a veteran of the Canadian promotion Maximum Fighting Championship, makes his UFC debut in a preliminary bout. The event can be seen in Canada on pay-per-view starting at 10 p.m. EST. Three preliminary fights can also been seen on Rogers Sportsnet starting at 9 p.m. Here is a preview with predictions of UFC 125, including a poll of who Canadian fans think will win the five main card bouts. For more MMA news and analysis follow @MikeyJ_MMA on Twitter…
MMA is all about stylistic matchups, and just like Edgar is a bad matchup for Penn, Maynard is a bad matchup for Edgar. Both men have similar strengths, wrestling and their boxing coupled with footwork and movement. But, Maynard is essentially a bigger, stronger version of Edgar and that doesn’t bode well for the champ. Edgar has been working with Phil Nurse on his Muay Thai, but if he throws many kicks Maynard will just catch them and take Edgar down. The way Edgar defends his belt is by somehow stuffing Gray’s takedown attempts, staying on the outside and outpointing ‘The Bully.’ Otherwise, the new UFC Lightweight Champion will be…
Gray Maynard.
This fight pits two former WEC champions against one another in what should be an exciting matchup. Most middleweights are intimidated by Leben’s knockout power, but that won’t bother Stann, a military veteran who has seen things most can only imagine. Leben’s fists won’t scare Stann in the slightest, but he must be weary of them and circle away from his opponent’s left hand. Leben, whose game plan is no secret, is coming off an incredible 2010, going 3-0 including wins over Yoshihiro Akiyama and Aaron Simpson just two weeks apart. Leben is without a doubt Stann’s toughest test at middleweight, but Stann has been in there with some of the top light heavyweights including Phil Davis and Canadian Krzysztof Soszynski. Most are expecting another Leben knockout, but with his improved speed and a good game plan Stann could find a way to outpoint Leben en route to an exciting decision.
Stann in an upset.
These are two of the most exciting fighters to watch in the UFC and there is no way this fight ends up being dull. Both Kim and Diaz have the skills to hang with any welterweight outside of GSP, but this might be a bad matchup for the South Korean. Kim is a phenomenal judoka that uses a smooth transition game to get into prime ground-and-pound positions; he displayed those techniques beautifully against Canadian TJ Grant at UFC 100. He has phenomenal control and is good enough on the feet to set up clinches. However, this may play right into the hands of Diaz. The TUF 5 winner is a superior boxer and extremely dangerous off of his back, so Kim is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Unless he can control Diaz like Joe Stevenson did in 2009, it may be a tough night for the charismatic Korean. The winner will be vaulted into the upper echelon of the 170lb division.
Diaz.
When Takanori Gomi took on Tyson Griffin in August, only longtime supporters of the ‘Fireball Kid’ gave him even the slightest of chances. Well, he proved naysayers wrong with a one-minute knockout of Griffin, putting the Japanese star back on the map. Despite the win, Gomi has a long way to go to get back into the top tier of the lightweight division and that road goes through the relentless Clay Guida. Gomi has knockout power and superior striking, but that’s where the advantages end. Guida should be able to get takedowns and exhaust Gomi with Tasmanian Devil-like ground-and-pound. Since moving to Greg Jackson’s camp, Guida has looked more refined, which makes him a more difficult opponent to prepare for. Then again, if Gomi can land flush it will change the fight.
Guida.
This fight isn’t getting too much attention, as both men have been out of action for a long time, but the winner will be back in title contention at light heavyweight. Silva is a knockout artist that leaves everything in the octagon. Vera, on the other hand, has some of the best Muay Thai in the UFC and isn’t afraid to stand with anyone. Vera is coming off a loss to Jon Jones in March in a fight that saw Jones break Vera’s orbital bone with an elbow. If he decides to stand and trade blows with Silva it could be a short night, but if he can work in his kicks to slow the Brazilian down, things will be easier for ‘The Truth.’ Octagon rust is real and Silva hasn’t fought in a full year, which could be the difference in an otherwise even matchup.
Vera.
Davis drops down from welterweight and although that seems like it should be an advantage, it won’t be. Davis, in order to drop the weight, will lose strength and, even if it increases his speed, the weight cut could affect his cardio. He takes on another man known for his powerful hands, Jeremy Stephens. Being tentative against Melvin Guillard at UFC 119 didn’t do Stephens any favours, so look for him to be aggressive and throw leather. Davis has been in many wars over the years and his body has paid the price. It’s doubtful that his chin can take the full force of a Stephens right hand.
Stephens.
Poirier is taking this fight on short notice, replacing Jose Aldo as Grispi’s opponent, but it was Grispi who needed to change his game plan mid training camp, which could be equally disadvantageous. Poirier is coming off a devastating WEC 52 win and makes his featherweight debut against one of the most dangerous 145 pounders in the world. Poirier is aggressive and confident, but might be in over his head. Grispi has crushing chokes and power behind his kicks and punches. He’s not the most technical featherweight, but he knows how to finish fights. He is riding a 10-fight win streak with nine coming by way of first round stoppage.
Grispi.
As a 2-1 underdog, most are counting out the “New York Badass” Phil Baroni as he looks to get his career back on track with a win over the young, talented TUF 11 cast member Brad Tavares. Both men like to stand and trade, but bring more to the table than simply a brawling style. At middleweight, Baroni has knockout power and likely won’t gas out as quickly as he did when he fought at welterweight. Also, Baroni has been training at the American Kickboxing Academy with Cain Velasquez, Josh Koscheck, Jon Fitch and the AKA crew, so look for his wrestling to be up to speed.
Baroni in an upset.
PRELIMINARY CARD
- Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard (for the UFC Lightweight Championship)
MMA is all about stylistic matchups, and just like Edgar is a bad matchup for Penn, Maynard is a bad matchup for Edgar. Both men have similar strengths, wrestling and their boxing coupled with footwork and movement. But, Maynard is essentially a bigger, stronger version of Edgar and that doesn’t bode well for the champ. Edgar has been working with Phil Nurse on his Muay Thai, but if he throws many kicks Maynard will just catch them and take Edgar down. The way Edgar defends his belt is by somehow stuffing Gray’s takedown attempts, staying on the outside and outpointing ‘The Bully.’ Otherwise, the new UFC Lightweight Champion will be…
Gray Maynard.
This fight pits two former WEC champions against one another in what should be an exciting matchup. Most middleweights are intimidated by Leben’s knockout power, but that won’t bother Stann, a military veteran who has seen things most can only imagine. Leben’s fists won’t scare Stann in the slightest, but he must be weary of them and circle away from his opponent’s left hand. Leben, whose game plan is no secret, is coming off an incredible 2010, going 3-0 including wins over Yoshihiro Akiyama and Aaron Simpson just two weeks apart. Leben is without a doubt Stann’s toughest test at middleweight, but Stann has been in there with some of the top light heavyweights including Phil Davis and Canadian Krzysztof Soszynski. Most are expecting another Leben knockout, but with his improved speed and a good game plan Stann could find a way to outpoint Leben en route to an exciting decision.
Stann in an upset.
These are two of the most exciting fighters to watch in the UFC and there is no way this fight ends up being dull. Both Kim and Diaz have the skills to hang with any welterweight outside of GSP, but this might be a bad matchup for the South Korean. Kim is a phenomenal judoka that uses a smooth transition game to get into prime ground-and-pound positions; he displayed those techniques beautifully against Canadian TJ Grant at UFC 100. He has phenomenal control and is good enough on the feet to set up clinches. However, this may play right into the hands of Diaz. The TUF 5 winner is a superior boxer and extremely dangerous off of his back, so Kim is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Unless he can control Diaz like Joe Stevenson did in 2009, it may be a tough night for the charismatic Korean. The winner will be vaulted into the upper echelon of the 170lb division.
Diaz.
When Takanori Gomi took on Tyson Griffin in August, only longtime supporters of the ‘Fireball Kid’ gave him even the slightest of chances. Well, he proved naysayers wrong with a one-minute knockout of Griffin, putting the Japanese star back on the map. Despite the win, Gomi has a long way to go to get back into the top tier of the lightweight division and that road goes through the relentless Clay Guida. Gomi has knockout power and superior striking, but that’s where the advantages end. Guida should be able to get takedowns and exhaust Gomi with Tasmanian Devil-like ground-and-pound. Since moving to Greg Jackson’s camp, Guida has looked more refined, which makes him a more difficult opponent to prepare for. Then again, if Gomi can land flush it will change the fight.
Guida.
This fight isn’t getting too much attention, as both men have been out of action for a long time, but the winner will be back in title contention at light heavyweight. Silva is a knockout artist that leaves everything in the octagon. Vera, on the other hand, has some of the best Muay Thai in the UFC and isn’t afraid to stand with anyone. Vera is coming off a loss to Jon Jones in March in a fight that saw Jones break Vera’s orbital bone with an elbow. If he decides to stand and trade blows with Silva it could be a short night, but if he can work in his kicks to slow the Brazilian down, things will be easier for ‘The Truth.’ Octagon rust is real and Silva hasn’t fought in a full year, which could be the difference in an otherwise even matchup.
Vera.
Who Canadian fans think will win:
**A group of random Canadian MMA fans were polled on Facebook and Twitter to see who they believe will win the five main card bouts. Here are the results…
Edgar 62% – Maynard 38%
Leben 88% – Stann 12%
Diaz 66% – Kim 34%
Guida 54% – Gomi 46%
Vera 40% – Silva 60%
PRELIMS LIVE ON ROGERS SPORTSNETDavis drops down from welterweight and although that seems like it should be an advantage, it won’t be. Davis, in order to drop the weight, will lose strength and, even if it increases his speed, the weight cut could affect his cardio. He takes on another man known for his powerful hands, Jeremy Stephens. Being tentative against Melvin Guillard at UFC 119 didn’t do Stephens any favours, so look for him to be aggressive and throw leather. Davis has been in many wars over the years and his body has paid the price. It’s doubtful that his chin can take the full force of a Stephens right hand.
Stephens.
Poirier is taking this fight on short notice, replacing Jose Aldo as Grispi’s opponent, but it was Grispi who needed to change his game plan mid training camp, which could be equally disadvantageous. Poirier is coming off a devastating WEC 52 win and makes his featherweight debut against one of the most dangerous 145 pounders in the world. Poirier is aggressive and confident, but might be in over his head. Grispi has crushing chokes and power behind his kicks and punches. He’s not the most technical featherweight, but he knows how to finish fights. He is riding a 10-fight win streak with nine coming by way of first round stoppage.
Grispi.
As a 2-1 underdog, most are counting out the “New York Badass” Phil Baroni as he looks to get his career back on track with a win over the young, talented TUF 11 cast member Brad Tavares. Both men like to stand and trade, but bring more to the table than simply a brawling style. At middleweight, Baroni has knockout power and likely won’t gas out as quickly as he did when he fought at welterweight. Also, Baroni has been training at the American Kickboxing Academy with Cain Velasquez, Josh Koscheck, Jon Fitch and the AKA crew, so look for his wrestling to be up to speed.
Baroni in an upset.
PRELIMINARY CARD
- Phil Baroni vs. Brad Tavares
- Josh Grispi vs. Dustin Poirier
- Marcus Davis vs. Jeremy Stephens
- Thiago Silva vs. Brandon Vera
- Clay Guida vs. Takanori Gomi
- Nate Diaz vs. Dong Hyun Kim
- Chris Leben vs. Brian Stann
- Mike Brown vs. Diego Nunes
Brown.
Both men are unsung welterweights looking to continue their winning ways. Soto (8-1, with his loss being a DQ) and Roberts (11-1) are both known for their grappling, though Roberts says his striking is vastly underrated. Soto will look to control Roberts with his wrestling, where as Roberts is the more aggressive fighter. Roberts has been training with Nick and Nate Diaz, Jake Shields and Gilbert Melendez so look for him to be on top of his game. Roberts could be one of the fighters to look for in 2011.
Roberts.
Volkman continues to prove critics wrong with impressive outings in the UFC and seeks for his third straight win. He doesn’t look like an intimidating figure in the slightest, yet with solid grappling and a blue-collar work ethic he is on a roll. After losing to top welterweights Martin Kampmann and Paulo Thiago, Volkman dropped to 155lbs and is 2-0 there. He takes on Antonio McKee, the outgoing MFC lightweight champ, who is well known in Canada. McKee has been one of the best lightweights not in the UFC for several years and now he gets his chance to prove his worth. Look for McKee to be the better athlete and the more tenacious striker.
McKee.
- Antonio McKee vs. Jacob Volkmann
- Greg Soto vs. Daniel Roberts
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